First it was a speculation. Then came the confirmation that a volcano was brewing in Mount APC when the party decided to extend the tenor of it’s office holders illegally.
But the tremors began way back when some political strategists saw a window of opportunity to take over power at the centre. Against all odds, the coalition overcame the bane of opposition parties in Africa to work together without signing off on all prenuptial agreements. The idea or goal appeared to be “let us win first”. It worked and APC was vaulted into the centre from the fringes.
Ordinarily, the Party ought to have begun the process of mending the fissures or fault lines that were clearly visible all over at the beginning. One way of doing that would have been to quickly distribute the largess of electoral victory as widely as practically as possible.
That did not happen. Rather, new henchmen who were never in the trenches came on board in Abuja. The wife of the President acknowledged that much in her interview with the BBC.
Consequently, many APC “warriors” were left in the lurch completely frustrated, with no where to go.
Strangely, Mr. President did not only keep mum but also gave the impression that he was not concerned. Things become so bad, that the leader of the party, Bola Ahmed Tinubu also became estranged and hardly participated in party activities. Ironically, Tunubu was chosen by the APC to reconcile disgruntled party members. A project that never got off the block.
President Buhari takes a huge chunk of the blame. He never played party politics. Either he naively believed that time will work things out or he didn’t just care. The latter appears to be the case.
Will this aloofness hurt the President in the 2019 election? Only time will tell. But the same signs that resulted in the spectacular defeat of the PDP in 2015 are again crawling up the wall. The controversies trailing the on-going congresses are vital markers to watch.
In at least 10 states, including Lagos, Rivers, Kwara, Ondo, Oyo, Delta, Ebonyi, Kogi, Adamawa and Enugu APC chieftains drew lines in the sand by organizing parallel congresses. For instance, in Rivers, the rift between Transport Minister Rotimi Amaechi and his one time ally Senator Magnus Abe has escalated with Abe’s men shut out of the state congress. In Kwara, it was Senate President Saraki against Minister of Information Lai Mohammed.
Even APC national leader Ahmed Tinubu was not spared of the embarrassment of a parallel congress. In Kano, the Kwankwasiyya group boycotted the polls setting the stage for the final confrontation between Ganduje and Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.
So far, the four winds of disintegration are still holding forth. But it may not be long before the growing rumblings we are witnessing today blow out in a towering eruption, and consign the APC to the same dark pit where the PDP now dwells.
Will that be a good thing for the country? May be. If parties loose elections every four years, sanity could prevail and politicians will learn to do the right thing knowing that if otherwise, the end will come quickly.